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Abstract Natural ecosystems store large amounts of carbon globally, as organisms absorb carbon from the atmosphere to build large, long-lasting, or slow-decaying structures such as tree bark or root systems. An ecosystem’s carbon sequestration potential is tightly linked to its biological diversity. Yet when considering future projections, many carbon sequestration models fail to account for the role biodiversity plays in carbon storage. Here, we assess the consequences of plant biodiversity loss for carbon storage under multiple climate and land-use change scenarios. We link a macroecological model projecting changes in vascular plant richness under different scenarios with empirical data on relationships between biodiversity and biomass. We find that biodiversity declines from climate and land use change could lead to a global loss of between7.44-103.14PgC (global sustainability scenario) and10.87-145.95PgC (fossil-fueled development scenario). This indicates a self-reinforcing feedback loop, where higher levels of climate change lead to greater biodiversity loss, which in turn leads to greater carbon emissions and ultimately more climate change. Conversely, biodiversity conservation and restoration can help achieve climate change mitigation goals. 

Abstract Global biodiversity and ecosystem service models typically operate independently. Ecosystem service projections may therefore be overly optimistic because they do not always account for the role of biodiversity in maintaining ecological functions. We review models used in recent global model intercomparison projects and develop a novel model integration framework to more fully account for the role of biodiversity in ecosystem function, a key gap for linking biodiversity changes to ecosystem services. We propose two integration pathways. The first uses empirical data on biodiversity–ecosystem function relationships to bridge biodiversity and ecosystem function models and could currently be implemented globally for systems and taxa with sufficient data. We also propose a trait-based approach involving greater incorporation of biodiversity into ecosystem function models. Pursuing both approaches will provide greater insight into biodiversity and ecosystem services projections. Integrating biodiversity, ecosystem function, and ecosystem service modeling will enhance policy development to meet global sustainability goals. 

Abstract Biodiversity projections with uncertainty estimates under different climate, land-use, and policy scenarios are essential to setting and achieving international targets to mitigate biodiversity loss. Evaluating and improving biodiversity predictions to better inform policy decisions remains a central conservation goal and challenge. A comprehensive strategy to evaluate and reduce uncertainty of model outputs against observed measurements and multiple models would help to produce more robust biodiversity predictions. We propose an approach that integrates biodiversity models and emerging remote sensing and in-situ data streams to evaluate and reduce uncertainty with the goal of improving policy-relevant biodiversity predictions. In this article, we describe a multivariate approach to directly and indirectly evaluate and constrain model uncertainty, demonstrate a proof of concept of this approach, embed the concept within the broader context of model evaluation and scenario analysis for conservation policy, and highlight lessons from other modeling communities. 

Abstract AimGeneralized dissimilarity modelling (GDM) is a powerful and unique method for characterizing and predicting beta diversity, the change in biodiversity over space, time and environmental gradients. The number of studies applying GDM is expanding, with increasing recognition of its value in improving our understanding of the drivers of biodiversity patterns and in implementing a wide variety of spatial assessments relevant to biodiversity conservation. However, apart from the original presentation of the GDM technique, there has been little guidance available to users on applying GDM to different situations or on the key modelling decisions required. InnovationWe present an accessible working guide to GDM. We describe the context for the development of GDM, present a simple statistical explanation of how model fitting works, and step through key considerations involved in data preparation, model fitting, refinement and assessment. We then describe how several novel spatial biodiversity analyses can be implemented using GDM, with code to support broader implementation. We conclude by providing an overview of the range of GDM‐based analyses that have been undertaken to date and identify priority areas for future research and development. Main conclusionsOur vision is that this working guide will facilitate greater and more rigorous use of GDM as a powerful tool for undertaking biodiversity analyses and assessments.